FORECASTS FOR 1998

Various statistical and dynamical models are been used to forecast (foreshadow) the summertime mean rainfall over Asia. This page contains some of the forecasts available on-line for the Indian and Asian monsoon. It should be remembered that forecasting the monsoon one season ahead is a very difficult business and that these forecasts can therefore fail from time to time. As with any forecast information, the user is responsible for being aware of the limitations of the information.

The India Meteorological Department using a variety of statistical regression methods, is forecasting the rainfall over India as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season(June to September) to be likely to be normal (as they have also quite successfully forecast for the past 10 years). Normal is defined as rainfall with + or - 10% of its climatological average. The ECMWF forecasts made with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model give differing results depending upon the lead time. The forecast made at the end of March suggests slightly less summer (July-Aug-Sept) rainfall over Asia, whereas the forecast made at the end of April suggests an increase over the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal.