FORECASTS
FOR 1999
Various statistical and dynamical
models are been used to forecast (foreshadow) the summertime mean rainfall
over Asia. This page contains some of the forecasts available on-line for
the Indian and Asian monsoon. It should be remembered that forecasting
the monsoon one season ahead is a very difficult business and that these
forecasts can therefore fail from time to time. As with any forecast information,
the user is responsible for being aware of the limitations of the information.
The India Meteorological Department
using a variety of statistical regression methods, is forecasting the rainfall
over India as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season(June to September)
to be likely to be normal (as they have also quite successfully forecast
for the past 11 years). Normal is defined as rainfall with ± 10%
of its climatological average. The ECMWF forecasts made with a coupled
ocean-atmosphere model give differing results depending upon the lead time.
