Various statistical and dynamical models are been used to forecast (foreshadow) the summertime mean rainfall over Asia. This page contains some of the forecasts available on-line for the Indian and Asian monsoon. It should be remembered that forecasting the monsoon one season ahead is a very difficult business and that these forecasts can therefore fail from time to time. As with any forecast information, the user is responsible for being aware of the limitations of the information.
The India Meteorological Department using a variety of statistical regression methods, is forecasting the rainfall over India as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season(June to September) to be likely to be normal (as they have also quite successfully forecast for the past 12 years). Normal is defined as rainfall with ± 10% of its climatological average. The ECMWF forecasts made with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model give differing results depending upon the lead time. Florida State University (FSU) has been providing multi-ensemble forecasts for the next 5 days, for several parameters and regions around the globe.
If you have ANY forecasts of the Asian monsoon for summer 2001, then we would like to hear from you so that we can put your monsoon forecasts on this page ... please write to us HERE about your monsoon forecast !
