| YOU SAID IT |
| By Laxman |
 |
|
I don’t want to take any risk. I’m told the monsoon is going to be rather poor this year!
|
| YOU SAID IT |
| By Laxman |
| |
|
I don’t want to take any risk. I’m told the monsoon is going to be rather poor this year!
|
Various statistical and dynamical models are been used
to forecast (foreshadow) the summertime mean rainfall over Asia. This page contains
some of the forecasts available on-line for the Indian and Asian monsoon. It should
be remembered that forecasting the monsoon one season ahead is a very difficult
business and that these forecasts can therefore fail from time to time. As with
any forecast information, the user is responsible for being aware of the limitations
of the information.
The India Meteorological Department using a variety of statistical regression
methods, is forecasting the rainfall over India as a whole for the entire southwest
monsoon season(June to September) to be likely to be normal (as they have also
quite successfully forecast for the past 12 years). Normal is defined as rainfall
with ± 10% of its climatological average. The ECMWF forecasts made with
a coupled ocean-atmosphere model give differing results depending upon the lead
time.
If you have ANY forecasts of the Asian monsoon for summer 2003, then we would like to hear from you so that we can put your monsoon forecasts on this page ... please write to us HERE about your monsoon forecast !