Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Raju Mandal

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904511

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: raju[dot]cat[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Prediction of Extreme events over India in Extended Range, Health impacts of extreme weather events, Variability and predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon

Academic Records

Degree	University	Year	Stream
Ph.D.	Savitribai Phule Pune University	2023	Atmospheric and Space Sciences
M.Sc.	IIT Bombay	2012	Physics
B.Sc.	Ramakrishna Mission Vidyamandira, Belur Math (University of Calcutta)	2010	Physics(Hons.)

Research

Diagnosis and prediction of extreme events over India in extended range

Health impacts of different weather events and extended range prediction

Indian Summer Monsoon: monsoon variability and predictability

Awards & Honors

Award Name	Awarded By	Awarded For	Year
IMS young scientist award	Indian Meteorological Society	Best paper published on Tropical Meteorology	2019
30th Biennial MAUSAM Award	International Quarterly Research Journal MAUSAM	-	2018-2019

Scientific Careers

Year	Designation	Institute
2026-Present	Scientist E	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2022-2025	Scientist D	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2018-2021	Scientist C	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2014-2017	Scientist B	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2012-2013	Trainee Scientist(CAT)	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Research Highlight

This study develops an objective, Tmin-based criterion to identify and monitor cold wave events over India, examines their long-term variability and large-scale drivers, and shows that their occurrence persists despite a warming background, with distinct links to ENSO phase and mid-latitude blocking. It further demonstrates that a multi-model ensemble extended-range prediction system can skillfully predict cold wave events over the prone regions up to 2–3 weeks in advance, providing useful early warning despite increasing uncertainty at longer leads.

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Chairman, Visitor’s Secretarial Committee (VSC), IITM (February 2021 – June 2025).

Coordinated year-round science outreach activities, including organizing institutional and laboratory visits for schools, colleges, and other external organizations.

Acting as the Chairman of Visitor’s Secretarial Committee (VSC), IITM since February 2021

Science outreach activities are carried out round the year through the VSC, under which, visits to our institute and institute's labs are arranged as per the requests from outside organizations (schools, colleges, industries etc.).

List of Publications

29. Waje S., Joseph S., Phani M.K.R., Sahai A.K., Dey Avijit, Mandal Raju, Role of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in modulating subseasonal to seasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 63: 248, June 2025, DOI:10.1007/s00382-025-07738-0, 1-14

28. Mandal R., Joseph S., Waje S., Chaudhary A., Dey Avijit, Kalshetti M., Sahai A.K., Heat waves in India: patterns, associations, and subseasonal prediction skill, Climate Dynamics, 63: 42, January 2025, DOI:10.1007/s00382-024-07539-x, 1-16 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07539-x

27. Nageswararao M.M., Joseph S., Mandal Raju, Tallapragada V., Akhter J., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani M.K.R., Sahai A.K., The role of antecedent southwest summer monsoon rainfall on the occurrence of premonsoon heat waves over India in the present global warming era, Discover Environment, 2: 127, November 2024, DOI:10.1007/s44274-024-00166-7, 1-25

26. Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Martin G.M., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Phani M.K.R., Evaluation and comparison of the subseasonal prediction skill of Indian summer monsoon in IITM CFSv2 and UKMO GloSea5, Climate Dynamics, 61, August 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06650-1, 1683–1696 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-022-06650-1.pdf?pdf=button

25. Mandal R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Dey Avijit, Phani M.K.R., Pattanaik D. R., Kaur M., Karmakar N., Diagnostics and real-time extended range prediction of cold waves over India, Climate Dynamics, Online, January 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06666-1, 1-19

24. Karmakar N., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Kaur M., Phani R., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Northward propagation of convection over the Indian region in multiphysics multimodel ensemble, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Online, November 2022, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4404, 1-16

23. Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, Kaur M, Mandal R, Phani R, et al. The intraseasonal fluctuation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). Theor Appl Climatol 2022;148:819–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03970-4.

22. Lekshmi S, Chattopadhyay R, Kaur M, Joseph S, Phani R, Dey A, et al. Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Theor Appl Climatol 2022;147:205–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03818-3.

21. Pattanaik DR, Alone A, Kumar P, Phani R, Mandal R, Dey A. Extended-range forecast of monsoon at smaller spatial domains over India for application in agriculture. Theor Appl Climatol 2022;147:451–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03827-2.

20. Kaur M, Sahai AK, Phani R, Joseph S, Mandal R, Dey A, et al. Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 2022;58:669–90. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05926-2.

19. Akhter J, Mandal R, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, Dey A, Nageswararao MM, et al. Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products. Theor Appl Climatol 2021;145:1089–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w.

18. Pattanaik DR, Mandal R, Phani R, Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, et al. Large-scale features associated with excess monsoon rainfall over india during 2019 and the real-time extended range forecast. Meteorol Atmos Phys 2021;133:1275–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y.

17. Sahai AK, Kaur M, Joseph S, Dey A, Phani R, Mandal R, et al. Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System. Front Clim 2021;3:1–11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.655919.

16. Ganesh SS, Abhilash S, Joseph S, Kaur M, Dey A, Mandal R, et al. A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for north indian ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework. Mausam 2021;72:57–76. https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v72i1.126.

15. Sahai AK, Mandal R, Joseph S, Saha S, Awate P, Dutta S, et al. Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters. Sci Rep 2020;10:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6.

14. Pattanaik DR, Sahai AK, Muralikrishna RP, Mandal R, Dey A. Active-Break Transitions of Monsoons Over India as Predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles. Pure Appl Geophys 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2.

13. Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, Sahai AK, Mandal R, Joseph S, Phani R, et al. MJO Prediction Skill Using IITM Extended Range Prediction System and Comparison with ECMWF S2S. Pure Appl Geophys 2020;177:5067–79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02487-z.

12. Kaur M, Krishna RPM, Joseph S, Dey A, Mandal R, Chattopadhyay R, et al. Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones. Atmos Sci Lett 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.971.

11. Rao SA, Goswami BN, Sahai AK, Rajagopal EN, Mukhopadhyay P, Rajeevan M, et al. Monsoon mission a targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2019;100. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1.

10. Mandal R, Joseph S, Sahai AK, Phani R, Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, et al. Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India. Sci Rep 2019;9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6.

9. Pattanaik DR, Sahai AK, Mandal R, Phani Muralikrishna R, Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, et al. Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD: Prospects of its applications in different sectors. Mausam 2019;70.

8. Joseph S, Sahai AK, Phani R, Mandal R, Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, et al. Skill evaluation of extended-range forecasts of rainfall and temperature over the meteorological subdivisions of India. Weather Forecast 2019;34:81–101. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055.1.

7. Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, Abhilash S, Mandal R, Dey A, Phani R, et al. Understanding the intraseasonal variability over indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system. Mausam 2019;70.

6. Dey A, Chattopadhyay R, Sahai AK, Mandal R, Joseph S, Phani R, et al. An Operational Tracking Method for the MJO Using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions. Pure Appl Geophys 2019;176:2697–717. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8.

5. Saranya Ganesh S, Abhilash S, Sahai AK, Joseph S, Chattopadhyay R, Mandal R, et al. Genesis and track prediction of pre-monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework. Nat Hazards 2019;95:823–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6.

4. Saranya Ganesh S, Sahai AK, Abhilash S, Joseph S, Dey A, Mandal R, et al. A New Approach to Improve the Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 2018;45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077650.

3. Abhilash S, Mandal R, Dey A, Phani R, Joseph S, Chattopadhyay R, et al. Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season. Clim Dyn 2018;51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3.

2. Joseph S, Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R, Sharmila S, Abhilash S, Rajeevan M, et al. Extremes in June rainfall during the Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational analysis and extended-range prediction. Q J R Meteorol Soc 2016;142:1276–89. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2730.

1. Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, Mandal R, Dey A, Abhilash S, et al. Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble-based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2. Curr Sci 2015;109. https://doi.org/10.18520/v109/i10/1802-1813.

Research Reports

8. Manpreet Kaur, R Phani, Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, R. Mandal, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay, Bias-Correction and Dynamical Downscaling Strategy to Improve the Prediction of Extreme Weather Events on Extended Range, IITM Research Report, RR 145, January 2019, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2019)/196, ISSN 0252-1075.

7. Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, A. Dey, R. Mandal and Aparnna Ravi P, On the dynamics of extended breaks during 2017 monsoon, IITM Research Report, RR- 143, June 2018, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/05(2018)/194, ISSN 0252-1075.

6. Susmitha Joseph, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay, Diagnostics and Real-Time Extended Range Prediction of Heat Waves over India, IITM Research Report, RR 141, March 2018, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/03(2018)/192

5. Chattopadhyay Rajib, R. Phani M.K, Joseph Susmitha, Dey Avijit, Mandal Raju and Sahai A.K., 2018, A Comparison of Extended-Range Prediction of Monsoon in the IITM-CFSv2 with ECMWF S2S Forecast System, IITM Research Report, RR 139, January 2018, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2018)/190

4. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, R. Mandal, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay, 2017, Evaluation of Extended Range Forecast Skill on Subdivisional scale over India, IITM Research Report, RR 137, May 2017, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2017)/188

3. D. R. Pattanaik, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey, R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Shibin Balakrishnan and A. K. Sahai, 2017, Performance of real time extended range forecast during southwest monsoon 2016, IMD Mrt Monograph: No.: ESSO/IMD/Synoptic Met./01(2017)/21

2. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay Rajib, Dey Avijit, Joseph Susmitha, Abhilash S., Phani M., Mandal Raju, Rajeevan M.N. and Hendon H, 2016, MJO Diagnostics for Extended Range Prediction and simulation in IITM CFSv2, IITM Research Report, RR 136, September 2016, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/02(2016)/187

1. Abhilash S., Raju M., Avijit D., R. Phani, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai and M. Rajeevan, 2015, A Research Report on the 2015 Southwest Monsoon: Chapter 5 - Performance of the Extended Range Prediction System During 2015 Monsoon Season, IITM Research Report, RR 185, November 2015, ISSN 0252-1075 ESSO/IITM/SR/02(2015)/185

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आईआईटीएम
IITM

भारतीय उष्णदेशीय मौसम विज्ञान संस्थान
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Raju Mandal

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904511

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: raju[dot]cat[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Research Highlight

Scientist Profile

Dr. Raju Mandal

Designation : Scientist E

Phone : +91-(0)20-25904511

Fax : +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID : raju[dot]cat[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Research Highlight

Designation

: Scientist E

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904511

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: raju[dot]cat[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in