S2S prediction

Background

Modelling community is making concerted efforts to address the challenging problem of predicting weather and climate at sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) scales that have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts. The S2S prediction project initiated by WMO focuses on improving the forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events, and to promote the initiatives uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community.

The challenges faced by the S2S community all over the world include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the source of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and skill assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; and linking research, operations, and users. Therefore, platforms those discuss the progress and accomplishments in S2S predictions would bring together the scientists, producers, and users who are at the forefront of S2S prediction and related research, development, and application areas to foster the exchange of information and knowledge between the communities towards more seamless predictions.

With this background, we organize an "International conference on the future directions of subseasonal to seasonal prediction over South Asia" during 29^th-31^st March 2021. This conference aims to review our current abilities to make skilful predictions on S2S scale and to identify new initiatives, collaborations, and emerging science questions.

At the end of this conference, it is also proposed to honour the significant contributions made by A. K. Sahai, Scientist - G, IITM in the field of climate science through his research on operational prediction of weather parameters on different time scales focusing over Indian Region. Dr Sahai is attaining his superannuation on 31^st March 2021.

Proposed Themes

S2S prediction and predictability

Application of AI/ML in S2S

Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

Climate Change Projections for subseasonal variability

Societal applications of S2S prediction

Event Structure

"Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation, the conference would be held online. About 150 participants from various international and national organizations are expected to attend the conference virtually. There will only be invited talks. It is proposed to use a suitable professional virtual conference software (like Microsoft teams) for organizing this virtual conference."

Date

Timing

Activity

Youtube Links

DAY 1

29.03.2021

08:30 - 09:00 UTC / 14:00 - 14:30 IST

09:00 - 10:40 UTC / 14:30 - 16:10 IST

10:40 - 11:00 UTC / 16:10 - 16:30 IST

11:00 - 13:00 UTC / 16:30 - 18:30 IST

Inaugural Session

Scientific Session - 1 (5 talks)

Health Break

Scientific Session - 2 (6 talks)

Day 1 : 29 March 2021

DAY 2

30.03.2021

03:30 - 05:30 UTC / 09:00 - 11:00 IST

05:30 - 05:50 UTC / 11:00 - 11:20 IST

05:50 - 07:50 UTC / 11:20 - 13:20 IST

Scientific Session - 3 (6 talks)

Health Break

Scientific Session - 4 (6 talks)

Day 2 : 30 March 2021

DAY 3

31.03.2021

08:30 - 09:30 UTC / 14:00 - 15:00 IST

09:30 - 10:00 UTC / 15:00 - 15:30 IST

10:00 - 12:00 UTC / 15:30 - 17:30 IST

Scientific Session - 5 (3 talks)

Health Break

Valedictory Session

Day 3 : 31 March 2021

Conference Presentations

Sr. No.	Title of the Presentation	Presentor	Download PDF
1	Prediction of the BSISO and Asian monsoon in the WWRP/WCRP S2S Database	Dr. Frederic Vitart	Frederic Vitart
2	Societal applications of S2S forecast of IMD	Dr. M. Mohapatra	M Mohapatra
3	A Ready-Set-Go Framework for Health and Agriculture: India is a Perfect Petri dish	Prof. Raghu Murtugudde	Raghu Murtugudde
4	Processes and predictability in the Asian monsoon	Dr. Gill Martin	Gill Martin
5	Sub-seasonal rainfall predictability types over South Asia and the global tropics	Dr. Andrew Robertson	Andrew Robertson
6	Extraction and prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations: An approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis	Dr. Ajaya Mohan	Ajaya Mohan
7	Some aspects of subseasonal prediction of the South American monsoon	Prof. Alice Grimm	Alice Grimm
8	Estimating Long-Range Predictability: A brief overview	Dr. Arun Kumar	Arun_Kumar
9	Messages to S2S Numerical Modeling Study from the recent Maritime Continent Field Campaign	Dr. Kunio Yoneyama	Kunio Yoneyama
10	Toward an operational use of equatorial wave theory Application to the 2019 Indian Monsoon onset and withdrawal	Dr. Theirry Lefort	Theirry_Lefort
11	Forecast quality assessment for climate services based on S2S prediction	Dr. Doblas Reyes	Doblas_Reyes
12	NCMRWF Seamless Modelling System: Prediction from Days-to-Season	Dr. Ashis Mitra	AshisMitra
13	Lessons learnt from weather scale forecast to improve fidelity of S2S	Dr. P Mukhopadhyay	P_Mukhopadhyay
14	Potential applications of S2S in early warning and agriculture risk management	Dr. Giriraj Amarnath	Giriraj_Amarnath
15	Climate Change Projections & Monsoon Variability	Dr. R Krishnan	R_Krishnan
16	Engaging with farmers to explore potential benefits of S2S predictions	Dr. G Srinivasan	G_Srinivasan
17	Application of Extended Range Prediction ocean ensembles in developing Marine Biogeochemistry deliverables: A future perspective	Dr. Vinu Valsala	Vinu Valsala
18	Storm types across India : definition, characteristics and predictability	Dr. Vincent Moron	Vincent Moron
19	Enabling S2S Prediction Applications: WMO Climate Services Information System Operations	Dr. Rupakumar Kolli	Rupakumar Kolli
20	Societal applications of S2S Predictions for Ocean and Coasts	Dr. T.M. Balakrishnan Nair	Balakrishnan
21	Monsoon low-pressure systems in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts	Dr. Kieran Hunt	Kieran Hunt
22	Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Seasonal and Subseasonal Studies and Predictions	Prof. Ravi S. Nanjundiah	Ravi S. Nanjundiah

Invited Speakers

CONFIRMED INVITED SPEAKERS

Dr Estelle De Coning

WMO, Geneva

Prof. Ravi S. Nanjundiah

Director IITM, Pune, India

Dr. M. Mohapatra

DGM, IMD Delhi, India

Dr Frederic Vitart

ECMWF, UK

Dr Andrew Robertson

IRI, USA

Dr Francisco Doblas-Reyes

BSC, Spain

Dr Kunio Yoneyama

JAMSTEC, Japan

Mr Thierry Lefort

MeteoFrance France

Prof Alice Grimm

UFPR, Brazil

Dr Arun Kumar

NCEP, USA

Dr RupaKumar Kolli

IITM Pune, India

Dr G Srinivasan

RIMES, Bangkok

Dr Ashis Mitra

NCMRWF, India

Dr R Krishnan

IITM Pune, India

Dr. A. K. Sahai

IITM, Pune, India

Dr. Suryachandra A. Rao

IITM, Pune, India

Dr P Mukhopadhyay

IITM, Pune, India

Prof Vincent Moron

Aix Marsille University, France

Prof Raghu Murtugudde

University of Maryland, USA

Dr Thea Turkington

CCRS, Singapore

Dr Ajaya Mohan

NYU, Abu Dhabi

Dr DS Pai

IMD, Pune, India

Dr Gill Martin

UK Met Office, UK

Dr Giriraj Amarnath

IWMI, Srilanka

Dr. Balakrishnan Nair TM

INCOIS, India

Dr Kieran Hunt

University of Reading, UK

Dr Vinu Valsala

IITM Pune, India

Chairs

Session 1

Prof UC Mohanty

IIT Bhubaneswar, India

Dr KJ Ramesh

Former DGM, IMD, India

Session 2

Dr LS Rathore

Former DGM IMD, India

Prof Ashok Karumuri

Univ of Hyderabad, India

Session 3

AVM (retd) Prof Ajit Tyagi

Former DGM, IMD, India

Prof Subimal Ghosh

IIT Bombay, India

Session 4

Dr Akhilesh Gupta

SPLICE, DST, India

Dr EN Rajagopal

Former Director, NCMRWF, India

Session 5

Prof RK Mall

Banaras Hindu University, India

Prof Vimal Mishra

IIT Gandhinagar, India

Expected Outcomes

New insights for future societal application of extended range forecast.
Expert opinion on the development of new models including AI/ML based models
New dimensions of monsoon forecasting.
New insights on regional downscaling.
Quantitative discussion on Monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations in a changing climate.
Several initiatives will emerge from the conference, including the operationalization of suitable strategies in S2S forecasting over Indian region in different sectors.
Learning and knowledge exchange among Conference participants through interdisciplinary discussions on different documented case studies.
Publication of the proceedings of the forum /Publication of a conference report.